Used Aircraft Market

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VickersPilot
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Used Aircraft Market

Post by VickersPilot »

For anyone who enjoys following used airplane price economics (IMHO bubble), I suggest watching the available inventory number on Controller. In absolute terms, it means little but the trend change is significant. I watched it fall from c. 5,000 (c. 2020) to c. 2,900 (Jan 22) and now rise to 3,302 (June 22).

The trend in this number should be a leading indicator to price declines or increases.

https://www.controller.com/listings/for ... rcraft/all
1 - 25 of 3,302 Listings
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gyro3816
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Re: Used Aircraft Market

Post by gyro3816 »

A better indicator is the aviation training segment and demand for Diamonds in those fleets. Used fleet will continue to climb right along new MSRPs. Calling this a bubble is wishful thinking for would-be buyers.
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MackAttack
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Re: Used Aircraft Market

Post by MackAttack »

It does vary by aircraft type and is in some cases model-specific. But the laws of supply and demand will always govern the market. As supply increases with a fixed demand, prices will tend to fall IF the relevant market has enough units to be relatively liquid. A very thinly-traded market will be slower to respond to short term swings in supply. For example, a friend of mine at Aerista has told me (and written a nice article in the current MMOPA magazine for the PA46 crowd) that the Cirrus SRxx supply has increased dramatically. But in other segments (Diamond twins being one that I watch and PA46), the supply hasn’t changed dramatically and the demand is still there.

It will be interesting to see how interest rate increases and a nascent recession will affect the demand side of the equation… I wouldn’t call this a “bubble” but I do think we are headed for a correction in used aircraft pricing in general.
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Lou
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Re: Used Aircraft Market

Post by Lou »

MackAttack wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 7:28 pm It will be interesting to see how interest rate increases and a nascent recession will affect the demand side of the equation… I wouldn’t call this a “bubble” but I do think we are headed for a correction in used aircraft pricing in general.
I would add the stock market correction to this list. “Wealth effect” can have an impact on luxury goods.
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VickersPilot
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Re: Used Aircraft Market

Post by VickersPilot »

Refer to first post as reference.

July 2023 - 4,534 listings on Controller

37% increase in inventory YoY. Tight squeeze is over.
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